If your truckload bills jumped this year and your shipments didn't, you're not imagining it. A big share of that increase traces back to one thing: the federal crackdown on who is allowed to drive a truck. Fewer qualified drivers means fewer trucks you can book, and shippers are the ones paying for it.
This guide explains what the crackdown actually is, how far it has gone as of November 2026, what it's doing to rates and capacity, and what a shipper can do about it before 2027 contracts get signed. It's written for the people who buy freight, not the people who drive it.
Short answer: Since mid-2025, federal and state enforcement has taken tens of thousands of commercial drivers off the road, mainly through English-language proficiency checks and a new rule that limits non-domiciled CDLs. With fewer trucks available, carriers reject more contracted loads and spot rates run far above last year. Shippers who lock in committed capacity, give carriers flexibility, and work with partners who vet carriers carefully will feel it less.
What the CDL crackdown actually is
It's not one rule. Three separate efforts are hitting the driver pool at the same time.
English-language proficiency enforcement. Federal rules have required commercial drivers to read and speak English well enough to understand road signs and talk to officers since long before any of us were in this business (49 CFR 391.11). For about a decade, failing that check didn't take a driver off the road. Since June 2025 it does again: a driver who fails is placed out of service on the spot. In August 2026 FMCSA proposed writing that out-of-service rule permanently into federal regulations (Federal Register, Aug. 10, 2026). The comment period closed October 9.
The non-domiciled CDL rule. A non-domiciled CDL is a commercial license a U.S. state issues to someone whose permanent home is in another country. FMCSA's final rule, in effect since March 16, 2026, limits those licenses to drivers in three visa categories (H-2A, H-2B and E-2) and stops accepting work permits as proof of eligibility (Federal Register, Feb. 13, 2026). FMCSA estimated about 194,000 current holders would lose eligibility over time, mostly as their licenses come up for renewal.
Training school and border enforcement. DOT has also gone after CDL training schools it says were turning out unqualified drivers, and after cabotage, which is a foreign carrier hauling freight between two U.S. points. Logistics Management reported that more than 3,000 Mexican-born drivers have lost U.S. entry visas as DOT shares more data with Customs and Border Protection.
How many drivers are off the road so far
The numbers keep climbing. According to DOT's November 4 update, as reported by FreightWaves:
| Measure | Figure (as of Nov. 4, 2026) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Drivers placed out of service for English proficiency | 33,000 | DOT, via FreightWaves |
| CDLs revoked as improperly issued | 31,000 | DOT, via FreightWaves |
| Driving schools shut down | Nearly 10,000 | DOT, via FreightWaves |
| Non-domiciled CDL holders expected to lose eligibility over time | About 194,000 | FMCSA final rule estimate |
Those are not all permanent exits, and some drivers will requalify. But the direction is clear, and it lands on top of a market that was already thin. Logistics Management's State of Logistics coverage counted roughly 89,000 truckload carriers leaving the market since 2022, after the long freight recession.
What it's doing to your freight costs
Here's the part shippers feel. Demand for freight is roughly flat. Supply is not.
Shippers are paying a lot more for the same freight. The U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index found shipper spending in the third quarter of 2026 was up 32.1% from a year earlier, while shipment counts rose just 0.5% (SDCExec). Spending went up in every region. In the Midwest it rose 0.6% from the prior quarter; in the Southwest it was up 51.6% from a year ago.
Spot rates are well above last year. DAT reported a van rate of $3.07 a mile all-in for the week of October 24 to 30, with linehaul about 33% above 2025. Truck postings on its load board were 22% to 26% below last year (The Trucker).
Contracted loads are getting turned down. Dry van tender rejections were still around 11% in early November, according to FreightWaves. That means roughly one contracted load in nine gets rejected and has to be re-bought, usually at a spot price.
Fuel isn't helping. The U.S. average diesel price was $6.292 a gallon on November 2, about $2.54 higher than a year earlier (EIA). That flows straight into your fuel surcharge.
2027 contracts will cost more. FTR's forecast has contract rates, before fuel, rising close to 20% year over year during 2027 (The Trucker). FTR chairman Eric Starks summed up what shippers are weighing: lock in capacity or lock in rates. "Right now, capacity is the winner."
For the longer view of where these numbers come from, see our U.S. trucking industry statistics for 2026 and why truck freight rates are rising.
Which shippers feel it most
Not every lane is equally tight. A few patterns stand out.
Long-haul dry van and reefer. These lanes lean hardest on over-the-road drivers, and they're where rejections and spot premiums show up first. Reefer has the added squeeze of holiday produce.
Flatbed. DAT's flatbed load-to-truck ratio hit 41.7 at the end of October, almost four times the dry van ratio, partly because of data center and construction freight.
Southwest and border lanes. The Southwest posted the biggest spending jump in the U.S. Bank index, and cross-border freight has to deal with cabotage enforcement and visa revocations on top of everything else. If you ship into or out of Mexico or Canada, read our cross-border freight page for how those moves are handled.
If your Canadian freight also faces the new 50% duty on Canadian goods, see what Section 338 tariffs mean for cross-border freight.
Shippers who book late. Short-notice loads go to whatever truck is available that day. In a market like this, that's the most expensive truck.
Who's hauling your load matters more now
There's a second cost to the crackdown that doesn't show up on the rate. When good trucks are scarce, more questionable ones fill the gap: carriers with borrowed authority, double-brokered loads, and drivers who shouldn't be behind the wheel.
That risk now reaches the shipper's side of the table. On May 14, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled unanimously in Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II that negligent-selection claims against a company that hires a carrier are not preempted by federal law. In plain terms, the company that picked the truck can be sued under state law if it picked badly. This is not legal advice, and every case turns on its facts, but it's a good reason to care how your carriers get chosen.
If you use a broker, ask how they check that a carrier's authority is active, that insurance is real, and that the driver who shows up matches the carrier on the paperwork. We wrote out our own process in how freight brokers vet carriers.
What shippers can do about it
You can't add drivers to the market. You can make your freight easier to haul and harder to reject.
Lock committed capacity on your core lanes
Lanes you ship every week belong under contract. When trucks are scarce, carriers serve contracted freight first. When you bid for 2027, ask for tender acceptance commitments, not just a price. A low rate the carrier won't honor ends up costing you the spot rate anyway. Our spot vs contract rate comparison covers how to split the two.
Book earlier and widen your windows
Lead time is the cheapest capacity you can buy. Tender loads two or three days out instead of the same day where you can. Give carriers a pickup window instead of a single appointment. Freight that fits a driver's schedule gets covered first and usually at a better rate.
Be a shipper drivers want to come back to
Drivers lose money sitting at docks. Fast loading, clear appointments, and paying detention when you cause the delay all make carriers more willing to accept your loads. With fewer drivers to go around, carriers have their pick, and they remember which docks waste their hours.
Use the right mode for each load
Not everything needs its own truck. On long lanes with some flexibility, rail intermodal is often cheaper and less exposed to the driver shortage. Domestic intermodal volume was up 8.3% year over year in September, according to IANA. Our intermodal vs truckload guide shows when it fits. For partial loads, LTL or volume LTL can beat paying for an empty half-trailer; see FTL vs LTL.
Budget for 2027 now
If your 2027 freight budget assumes this year's contract rates, it's probably short. With contract rates forecast to keep climbing and diesel above $6, build in room and talk to finance before bid season, not after the first invoices arrive.
Plan for the holiday crunch
The weeks around Thanksgiving and the end of the year are the hardest to cover on short notice. Our Q4 peak season planning guide walks through what to lock in first.
Will it ease in 2027?
Probably not quickly. Most analysts expect capacity to stay tight into 2027. The non-domiciled rule works gradually, as licenses come up for renewal, so its effect builds over time rather than hitting all at once. Legal challenges to that rule are still in the D.C. Circuit, and the English proficiency rule is still a proposal, so details could change. New truck costs are also rising with the 2027 engine emissions standards, which slows how fast carriers add trucks.
What would loosen things: freight demand softening, more qualified drivers entering through legitimate training, or court rulings that change the rules. None of that looks likely to happen fast enough to matter for 2027 bids.
Frequently asked questions
What is the CDL crackdown?
It's a set of federal and state enforcement efforts that started in 2025: putting drivers who fail English proficiency checks out of service, limiting non-domiciled CDLs to three visa categories under a rule effective March 16, 2026, shutting down CDL schools DOT says weren't qualified, and enforcing cabotage rules at the border.
How many truck drivers have been taken off the road?
As of November 4, 2026, DOT reported 33,000 drivers placed out of service for English proficiency and 31,000 CDLs revoked as improperly issued. FMCSA estimated about 194,000 non-domiciled CDL holders would lose eligibility over time under the new rule.
Why are truck freight rates so high right now?
Mainly because there are fewer trucks and drivers available, not because there's more freight. Shipment volumes are roughly flat, but enforcement, carrier exits and diesel above $6 a gallon have pushed spot rates about a third above last year and contract rates up as well.
Does the crackdown affect LTL shipping?
Yes, indirectly. LTL carriers employ their own drivers, but some shippers are splitting truckloads into LTL shipments when trucks are hard to find, and LTL carriers are seeing heavier average shipments as a result. Fuel surcharges and accessorial fees also rise with diesel.
What should shippers do before 2027 contracts?
Put steady lanes under contract with tender acceptance commitments, book earlier with wider pickup windows, use intermodal or LTL where they fit, budget for higher contract rates, and make sure your broker or carriers verify who is actually hauling your freight.
If you want a second opinion on your lanes before bid season, request a quote and tell us what you ship. We'll show you where contract, spot, intermodal or LTL makes sense for each lane.
Cover photo: Charles Criscuolo on Pexels.
